Mesoscale Discussion 0190
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0512 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2017
Areas affected...Portions of central/western/northern OK
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 192312Z - 200145Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue to develop northward/eastward
through the evening hours, and an isolated/marginal severe risk
could evolve. Watch issuance will not be needed.
DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms from parts of central/western TX into
southwest OK will continue to develop northward/eastward during the
next several hours. This will occur as midlevel height falls
continue overspreading the region amidst modest 850-700-mb warm
advection. Convection over southwest OK already is assuming somewhat
disorganized/cluster-type convective modes. This is consistent with
multiple subtle inflections in the hodograph representing deep
meridional flow indicated by the FDR VAD wind profile. With around
50-55 kt of deep shear, and modest strengthening of low-level shear
profiles through the evening, a few briefly severe storms could
occur. Locally damaging wind gusts will be the primary concern with
this activity. Convective interference owing to increasingly
numerous thunderstorm development, coupled with a relatively more
dry/stable boundary layer compared to points south, should greatly
minimize the severe risk.
..Cohen/Thompson.. 02/19/2017
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...OUN...
LAT...LON 36609745 35239730 34889750 34899812 35319867 35979890
36729877 36849814 36609745
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