Mesoscale Discussion 0192 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0813 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2017 Areas affected...South Central Texas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 35... Valid 200213Z - 200415Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 35 continues. SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will spread across the remainder of ww35 over the next few hours. Large hail is the primary risk with isolated embedded supercells, and locally damaging winds may accompany bowing line segments. DISCUSSION...Convection has steadily increased in areal coverage over the western half of ww35 ahead of a well-defined upper vort that is located south of the Big Bend region near 28N/104w. Latest model guidance suggests height falls will overspread deep south TX later tonight which appears to be partly responsible for southward thunderstorm development to Zapata county in the Valley. While BRO and CRP soundings are both capped this evening, seasonally high PW exists across south TX with 14.8 g/kg observed at CRP. As the LLJ increases ahead of this activity there is increasing confidence thunderstorms will continue to propagate east. Given the observed instability across this region there is some concern for isolated hail/damaging winds into portions of Deep South TX. Will continue to monitor the region immediately south of ww35 for possible ww. ..Darrow.. 02/20/2017 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX... LAT...LON 28220129 30230082 30239898 28239947 28220129Read more
from SPC Forecast Products http://ift.tt/xgbzVl
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