Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES... ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE GULF COAST TO THE MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to locally severe thunderstorms may occur through the afternoon and early evening hours across the central Gulf Coast States northward into the middle Mississippi River Valley. ...Gulf Coast/lower MS River Valley/Mid-South... Well ahead of the synoptic cold front, the outflow-focused remnants of last night's convection continue to decelerate while slowly progressing into western AL, while otherwise stalling along coastal LA. It appears the strongest/most organized convection will remain semi-focused this afternoon across southeast LA and possibly near-coastal portions of MS/AL into the FL panhandle. Low/mid-tropospheric winds should continue to gradually weaken during the day, but some additional heating/destabilization will nonetheless support some stronger mostly linear storms capable of locally damaging winds and possibly a tornado. Otherwise, a few stronger storms could redevelop this afternoon across the Mid-South/Lower MS River Valley vicinity near/just ahead of the synoptic front within a modestly unstable environment. However, semi-prevalent cloud cover and weakening mass convergence should limit any such risk. ...Middle MS River Valley... The slow-moving closed/cold cyclone will continue to drift east-northeastward today from the Ozarks toward central/southern IL by tonight. Immediately ahead of this nearly stacked low, locally stronger heating (60s F surface temperatures) and moderately steep lapse rates, as noted between 850mb-650mb in the 12Z observed sounding from Springfield MO, could support some stronger updrafts this afternoon. Marginally severe and gusty winds could occur, and sufficient low-level moisture/ambient vorticity could allow for a few funnels. ..Guyer/Mosier.. 03/25/2017Read more
from SPC Forecast Products http://ift.tt/wWCv9s
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