SPC MD 248

MD 0248 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GA INTO CENTRAL AL

Mesoscale Discussion 0248
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0243 PM CST Wed Mar 01 2017

Areas affected...Portions of central GA into central AL

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 012043Z - 012315Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A risk for severe storms may begin spreading east of Watch
57 after 22Z. While the intensity of this activity may already be at
its peak, at least isolated severe potential could exist east of
Watch 57 into the evening hours, potentially warranting Watch
issuance.

DISCUSSION...A line of thunderstorms extending northeast-southwest
across the TN Valley region will continue spreading eastward into
the evening hours, as convective inflow has diurnally destabilized.
With surface dewpoints in the upper 50s to lower 60s, MLCAPE on the
order of 500-1000 J/kg aided by steep midlevel lapse rates, amidst
40-55 kt of effective shear, will support at least an isolated
severe risk during the next several hours. Large hail and sporadic
damaging wind gusts should be the primary concerns with this
activity. However, with low-level flow remaining quite veered,
convective inflow is somewhat limited -- which may restrict the
number of robust updrafts lingering past peak heating. Furthermore,
with stronger deep ascent becoming increasingly displaced to the
northeast of the area, the overall severe risk may gradually lessen
into the late afternoon/early evening. Nevertheless, buoyancy/shear
will remain adequate for some severe risk into the evening.

..Cohen/Hart.. 03/01/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...BMX...

LAT...LON   32768737 33758527 34258362 33718275 33078331 32578444
            32278686 32768737 

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