SPC MD 250

MD 0250 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 59... FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND NORTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA

Mesoscale Discussion 0250
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0521 PM CST Wed Mar 01 2017

Areas affected...Portions of central/eastern North Carolina and
northern South Carolina

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 59...

Valid 012321Z - 020115Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 59
continues.

SUMMARY...Clusters and small lines of strong/severe thunderstorms
will continue east across the region this evening, with an attendant
threat for damaging winds, marginally severe hail, and perhaps a
tornado. Watch 59 will probably need some eastward expansion and/or
a new downstream watch closer to coast could be issued.

DISCUSSION...Small bowing segments/clusters of occasionally severe
thunderstorms are advancing east across the Carolinas early this
evening. These storms are encountering an air mass characterized by
a relatively well-mixed boundary layer, with dew points in the
mid/upper 50s. In turn, mixed-layer convective inhibition may cause
less organized cells to weaken further in the near-term. However,
considering 1-3 km southwesterly flow around 35-50 kts and
relatively steep low-level lapse rates, any modest upscale growth
may pose a threat for some strong/damaging gusts in the near term. A
southward-sinking outflow boundary over northern NC may continue to
provide a focus for downwind propagation, which would also focus a
greater wind threat. As such, Watch 59 may need eastward expansion
across parts of central NC and central/eastern SC.

Later this evening, an increasing low-level jet may advect higher
dew points (in the lower 60s) ahead of the line across the eastern
Carolinas. A resultant uptick in MLCAPE may encourage some
strengthening of these storms later this evening. If such an
increasing wind threat were to materialize, new watch issuance would
be needed downstream. Additionally, strong low-level wind fields and
a moistening boundary layer could support the potential for a
tornado or two.

..Picca.. 03/01/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...CAE...GSP...

LAT...LON   36047640 35607624 34957697 34327805 33997905 34138134
            34398278 34708317 34948295 35648125 36147957 36227783
            36047640 

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