SPC MD 308

MD 0308 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHERN UTAH...NORTHEAST NEVADA...SOUTHEAST IDAHO...SOUTHWEST WYOMING

Mesoscale Discussion 0308
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0330 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017

Areas affected...Northern Utah...northeast Nevada...southeast
Idaho...southwest Wyoming

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 222030Z - 222230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...An increase in thunderstorm coverage and intensity is
expected through about 00Z, with small to marginally severe hail
possible.

DISCUSSION...Sporadic weak thunderstorm activity has been noted
ahead of a cold front over central NV and within a surface trough
from southern NV across UT. Strong heating along with cooling
temperatures aloft have resulted in a steep lapse rate environment,
which is helping to create several hundred J/kg of MUCAPE despite
dewpoints only in the 30s in most areas. Shear profiles are
favorable for cellular activity, with increasing mid to high level
flow elongating hodographs. This should help aid in hail production,
mostly small. However, a cell or two could produce marginally severe
hail and gusty winds over the next few hours as heating persists
especially across northern UT into southeast ID and southwest WY.

..Jewell/Hart.. 03/22/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RIW...SLC...PIH...LKN...

LAT...LON   41450875 40191207 39891371 40001477 40521580 40981554
            41241449 42091358 42831240 42811128 42600981 42230909
            41450875 

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