SPC MD 365

MD 0365 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 96... FOR SOUTHERN OK

Mesoscale Discussion 0365
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0121 AM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

Areas affected...Southern OK

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 96...

Valid 290621Z - 290745Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 96
continues.

SUMMARY...Northern portion of an extensive QLCS should continue
northeast across southern OK and southeast portions of WW 97. Strong
wind gusts are the predominant threat with this line, with the
overall severe threat appearing limited. Downstream WW issuance is
unlikely.

DISCUSSION...An extensive QLCS is ongoing from southwest OK to the
Rio Grande in south-central TX. Recent movement of the northern
portion of the QLCS has slowed to around 30-35 kt suggesting the
line may not approach the edge of WW 97 until near 09Z. 06Z surface
analysis indicated a pocket of relatively lower dew points along the
Red River into far northeast TX. Thus, the northern part of the QLCS
could further weaken in the short-term. However, a plume of lower to
middle 60s surface dew points lingers across southeast OK near the
warm front. RAP-based mesoanalysis indicates comparatively weaker
MLCIN within this corridor as well. It remains possible that
embedded portions of the QLCS that are more perpendicular to the
mean wind could intensify as they approach the edge of WW 97, given
strengthening deep-layer winds with an impinging 500-mb jet.
Overall, the probability of severe gusts should remain low.

..Grams/Dial.. 03/29/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...

LAT...LON   34519786 34719740 35079696 35289657 35569628 35719600
            35579550 35229519 34719526 34229561 33979614 33999734
            34119768 34519786 

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