Mesoscale Discussion 0388
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0511 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2017
Areas affected...Portions of coastal Virginia/North Carolina
Concerning...Tornado Watch 105...
Valid 312211Z - 312345Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 105 continues.
SUMMARY...The threat for a couple tornadoes, isolated instances of
large hail, and a few damaging-wind gusts continues.
DISCUSSION...Multiple supercells, as well as a small linear segment
with an embedded mesovortex, continue eastward across Watch 105 this
evening. One tornado was already evident via a dual-pol debris
signature (around 2135Z) near Suffolk, VA. Occasional ZDR arc
signatures with this supercell, as well as two to the
west/southwest, suggest a near-storm environment characterized by
favorable low-level storm-relative flow veering with height.
Interaction with a weak warm front lingering over the area and/or
recent outflow boundaries may further yield an uptick in tornado
potential, as localized backing of near-surface winds occurs.
Sufficient buoyancy/effective shear overlap (especially with
southward extent) will also encourage a few instances of severe
hail.
As mid-level ascent increases with the approach of the main
vorticity maximum to the west, these cells should persist as they
head toward the coast. Indeed, this ascent is likely aiding a linear
segment currently near Greenville County, VA. As it pushes east, an
attendant threat for damaging wind and an embedded tornado or two
will likely exist with this line, with the overall threat ending
following its passage.
..Picca.. 03/31/2017
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...RAH...
LAT...LON 36097630 35927676 36067722 36567752 37177766 37217667
36927591 36327560 36117609 36097630
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