SPC Apr 2, 2017 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1233 AM CDT Sun Apr 02 2017

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY ACROSS
MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA...THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE
AND WESTERN THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SURROUNDING
AREAS OF THE GULF COAST STATES INTO PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS AND THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SURROUNDING AREAS OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST
STATES...PARTS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS AND
SOUTHERN/MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorm development appears likely across
parts of the Southeast on Monday, particularly across much of
central and southern Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle into
north central Georgia.  This will include the risk for severe wind
and hail, along with the possibility of tornadoes, a few of which
could be strong.

...Synopsis...
The large-scale pattern remains progressive, with another in a
series of short wave impulses emerging from a strong mid-latitude
Pacific jet currently advancing inland across the British Columbia
and Pacific Northwest coast.  This feature is forecast to dig across
the Intermountain West Monday through Monday night, supporting the
initiation of surface cyclogenesis to the lee of the southern
Rockies by the end of the period.

As this occurs, a preceding perturbation still evolving to the west
northwest of the Texas Big Bend region is expected to accelerate
northeast of the southeastern Plains and Sabine Valley by 12Z
Monday, accompanied by a deepening surface cyclone.  The center of
the broad surface low is generally forecast to track from the Ozark
Plateau through the upper Ohio Valley/lower Great Lakes region
during this period, though the exact track remains one point of
model spread.

Within the potentially broad warm sector of the lead cyclone, more
substantive boundary layer moistening will still be in the process
of returning inland (to the east of the lower Mississippi Valley)
off the Gulf of Mexico, as the remnants of a large convective
system, expected to evolve Sunday night, advance east of the lower
Mississippi Valley by 12Z Sunday.  Coupled with some model output
suggesting that significant convective development could also be in
the process of developing off the Gulf Coast at that time, there
remain some lingering uncertainties concerning its impact on
convective potential for this period, as stronger mid/upper forcing
begins to lift away from the Gulf Coast region.  Still, trends in
the model output appear to be supporting increasing confidence in
substantive boundary layer moistening within at least a narrow
corridor inland of the northeastern Gulf coast.

...Southeast...
At least the remnants of a substantial mesoscale convective system
probably will be in the process of advancing east of the lower
Mississippi Valley at the beginning of the period.  And guidance
appears increasingly suggestive that a preceding corridor of
appreciable boundary layer moistening and destabilization will keep
pace with it, contributing to the potential maintenance or
re-invigoration of activity through the day Monday.  In the presence
of ambient wind profiles characterized by strong deep layer shear
and large-clockwise curved low-level hodographs (near a 50+ kt
southerly 850 mb jet), the environment appears more than favorable
for an organized damaging wind threat, along with a few tornadoes.

Discrete supercell development appears possible ahead of the
convective system, particularly later in the day across the piedmont
of Alabama into Georgia, on the southern fringe of the stronger
forcing associated with the mid/upper trough.  This activity may
persist and possibly grow upscale into another evolving convective
system, spreading into the Carolina piedmont late Monday afternoon
and evening.  Severe wind gusts/hail and tornadoes all appear
possible with this activity.

..Kerr.. 04/02/2017

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