Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CDT Sun Apr 02 2017 Valid 051200Z - 101200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Organized severe thunderstorm development is possible across parts of the Ohio Valley and Southeast into the Mid Atlantic Coast region this coming Wednesday into Thursday... Amplification within the westerlies across the Pacific coast into the Plains by the middle of this week appears likely to shift eastward through the Atlantic Seaboard by next weekend. Models suggest that this will support the continuing development of a broad deep lower/mid tropospheric cyclone through the Ohio Valley into the Northeast. Rapid substantive moisture return to the warm sector of the cyclone appears possible in the wake of a previous cyclone, initially along a developing warm frontal zone across parts of Alabama and Georgia by early Wednesday, closer to the cyclone center across the Ohio Valley by Wednesday evening, and across the Mid Atlantic Coast region by Thursday. Associated destabilization in the presence of favorable large-scale forcing for ascent and strengthening low-level and deep layer shear is expected to support considerable organized severe weather potential, including evolving storm clusters and discrete supercell activity. Severe wind gusts and tornadoes will be possible with strongest activity, along with a risk for large hail. It seems probable that areas of higher severe probabilities will be required in subsequent outlooks for this time frame. The pattern is expected to remain progressive, but may trend more zonal next weekend into early next week, with short wave development and associated severe weather potential becoming more unclear.Read more
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