Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 PM CDT Fri Apr 21 2017 Valid 220100Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL TX TO SOUTHWEST AR... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH TX TO NORTHWEST MS... ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging gusts, large hail and a few tornadoes are expected through tonight from North Central Texas into Arkansas. Isolated severe thunderstorms may also impact portions of the Mid-South into the Mid-Atlantic with wind and hail. ...North Central TX to AR... Large-scale height falls will spread into the Mid/Lower MS Valley overnight as primary mid-level speed max digs across northern OK into northern AR. Deep convection is responding to this feature with scattered thunderstorms increasing in areal coverage along a corridor from portions of the Ozark Plateau to west of the DFW Metroplex. 00z sounding from FWD exhibits seasonally steep mid-level lapse rates with adequate moisture for robust thunderstorms this evening. Shear profiles favor south of east movement for right-moving supercells and large hail can be expected with these sustained updrafts. Later this evening, LLJ will respond to aforementioned mid-level speed max with speeds approaching 50kt by midnight over AR. Low-level warm advection will enhance ascent atop rain-cooled air mass and considerable amount of elevated convection should evolve ahead of frontal convection. Large hail is the primary threat with elevated activity but damaging winds and a few tornadoes may also be noted with near-surface based supercells. ...Middle Atlantic... Small cluster of strong/severe thunderstorms is progressing across the Chesapeake Bay region and will weaken or move offshore by 02z. Isolated hail/wind may accompany this activity for the next hour or so. Will maintain MRGL severe threat across the TN Valley region for gusty winds and marginally severe hail in association with weak MCS as it propagates toward the higher terrain of eastern TN/western NC. ..Darrow.. 04/22/2017Read more
from SPC Forecast Products http://ift.tt/rxAC6Z
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