Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 AM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM A PORTION OF THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... At least a marginal risk for a few severe storms capable of isolated damaging wind gusts and hail is expected from the Southeast States into the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes on Thursday. ...Synopsis... Lead shortwave trough embedded within a broad synoptic trough will continue northeast through the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes early Thursday. Farther upstream, a series of vorticity maxima north of an evolving, strong upper jet core will advance southeast through the Great Basin, southern Rockies and southern Plains. The surface cyclone attending the lead shortwave trough will occlude over the Great Lakes, while trailing front continues through the OH and TN valleys. The southwestern extension of this front will stall and return north as a warm front across TX in response to lee cyclogenesis over the southern High Plains. ...Southeast States... Richer low-level moisture with dewpoints in the 60s F will reside over a portion of the Southeast States warm sector, contributing to marginal to moderate instability. It is likely that storms will be ongoing from middle TN into AL and the FL Panhandle, and some of this activity could pose an ongoing severe risk as it continue east during the morning into the early afternoon given favorable wind profiles but modest instability. Tendency will be for the deeper forcing and stronger low-mid level winds to gradually shift north of this region in association with shortwave trough moving northeast through the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes. This may serve as a limiting factor for a longer duration, organized severe threat. Nevertheless, this area will continue to be monitored for a possible slight risk in future updates. ...Ohio Valley and Great Lakes... The feed of richer low-level moisture will become limited as the cyclone occludes over the Great Lakes region. However, at least marginal instability within a strong shear environment will exist in pre-frontal warm sector, and storms might pose some risk for a few instances of isolated damaging wind gusts and hail as they develop east during the day. This region will also be monitored for a possible slight risk in later updates. ..Dial.. 04/26/2017Read more
from SPC Forecast Products http://ift.tt/GB0aDL
No comments:
Post a Comment