Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 AM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN AR AND NORTHERN LA... ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST MO INTO PARTS OF AR...TN...LA...MS...AND TX... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN IL INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY... ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MS VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across the Lower Mississippi Valley. Tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds are most probable from northeast Texas across parts of Arkansas and northern Louisiana this afternoon. Isolated severe thunderstorms may extend as far north as Illinois/Indiana this afternoon and evening, and into the central Gulf States during the overnight hours. ...Lower MS Valley... Few changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. A squall line currently extends from south-central MO into northeast TX. Several bowing structures along this line will pose a risk of damaging winds gusts, large hail, and perhaps a QLCS tornado or two this afternoon. The activity will likely spread into southeast MO and western KY/TN by early evening, with a continued severe threat. Farther south, most model solutions suggest that the capping inversion will slowly weaken this afternoon. This should help to allow a few discrete storms to form in the warm sector ahead of the more organized convective line. Local VAD and forecast hodographs in this region continue to support a risk of supercells capable of tornadoes (some strong) if discrete initiation materializes. Therefore will maintain the MDT risk and 15% tornado forecast. These storms are expected to track northeastward through the evening into western/central MS where damaging winds and isolated tornadoes will remain possible. Overnight, it is uncertain how far east the organized severe threat will persist. Nevertheless, will make no changes to the eastern extent of the SLGT risk at this time. ..Hart/Smith.. 04/26/2017Read more
from SPC Forecast Products http://ift.tt/wWCv9s
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