SPC Apr 26, 2017 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0337 AM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017

Valid 291200Z - 041200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Models continue to demonstrate good consistency regarding the
evolution of an upper trough expected to move through the Southern
Plains and MS Valley regions this coming weekend.

Saturday (day 4) - Shortwave trough is expected to amplify over the
southern Rockies and continue east through the southern Plains
accompanied by a strong cold front. Severe storms are expected to
develop along this boundary and progress east through TX and the
lower MS Valley where the atmosphere will be moderately to strongly
unstable.

Sunday (Day 5) - As the trough and its associated cold front
progress eastward, the severe-storm threat will spread into the TN
Valley and Southeast States where favorable vertical shear will
coexist with a moderately unstable warm sector downstream from an
ongoing MCS.

Monday (Day 6) - Some severe threat will persist from a portion of
the OH Valley, the Northeastern States and Carolinas as cyclone
occludes over the Great Lakes, but trailing front continues toward
the Atlantic seaboard. At this time, it remains uncertain whether
instability will be sufficient for a more robust severe event.

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