Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 AM CDT Sun Apr 30 2017 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will be possible from the western/central Gulf Coast to the northern High Plains. While a few stronger storms may be possible across the Texas Gulf Coast and southern Plains Tuesday night, organized severe weather is not currently expected. ...Synopsis... Broad cyclonic flow aloft will remain established across the Rockies and points east through the period. Within this regime, one trough will lift northeast from the Great Lakes towards the Canadian Maritimes. Meanwhile, an upstream positively tilted trough will drop southeast from the Rockies towards the southern/central Plains. Ahead of this trough, the low-level mass response will feature gradual moisture return northward across the Texas Gulf Coast and adjacent portions of the southern Plains. Additionally, modest warm advection late Tuesday into Tuesday night may yield elevated convection across parts of Oklahoma and the Ozarks. While the 00Z GFS is more aggressive with northward moisture return and suggests the potential for a more substantive severe threat, it appears to be an outlier relative to other guidance. In turn, convection is currently expected to be relegated to areas of only weak/modest elevated buoyancy Tuesday night. Thus, while some small hail appears possible, a Marginal Risk is not introduced at this time. Farther south, convection may develop late Tuesday night across parts of the Texas Gulf Coast, likely in response to a subtle impulse within the sub-tropical jet. While a few stronger cells may be possible, guidance currently suggests most storms may remain offshore. Combined with the unfavorable timing and subtle/uncertain nature of this impulse, the potential for organized severe weather appears too low for a Marginal Risk at this time. ..Picca.. 04/30/2017Read more
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