Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 AM CDT Fri Apr 07 2017 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM A PORTION OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM A PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms will be possible Sunday afternoon and evening from the central Plains into the middle to upper Mississippi Valley area. ...Central Plains through middle to upper Mississippi Valley... Middle to upper 50s low-level dewpoints will advect north through the Plains and Mississippi Valley along a southerly low-level jet and beneath a warm elevated mixed layer contributing to 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE. A shortwave trough over the central and southern Rockies early in the day will continue into the Plains during the afternoon. Surface low will shift toward the middle-upper Mississippi Valley with trailing dryline extending southward through the Plains. A warm front will extend east from the low through the Great Lakes. A cold front attending the progressive shortwave trough will merge with the dryline over Kansas during the afternoon. The warm elevated mixed layer will contribute to a substantial cap in the warm sector much of the day. However, mixing and convergence along the dryline could initiate isolated storms over eastern Kansas by late afternoon with the arrival of deeper forcing for ascent attending the shortwave trough. Other storms may form as the cold front merges with the dryline, and activity will shift east into the middle Mississippi Valley during the evening. A middle to upper jet streak attending the shortwave trough will contribute to strong deep-layer shear, supportive of supercells capable of large hail, damaging wind and possibly a couple of tornadoes. Other storms will likely develop along and north of the warm front into the Great Lakes region. Much of this activity will probably remain elevated with primary threat being a few instances of large hail. ..Dial.. 04/07/2017Read more
from SPC Forecast Products http://ift.tt/GAMjPN
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