SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0214 AM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
AZ...SOUTHERN NM...THE TRANS-PECOS REGION OF SOUTHWEST TX...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER CO RIVER
VALLEY...

...Synopsis...
In the mid levels, a deep cyclone and attendant band of strong flow
aloft are forecast to track from portions of the southwest States to
the southern Great Plains. An area of dry conditions/low RH will
extend from portions of the southwest States to southwest Texas,
which will be overtaken by a cold front advancing southward and
southeastward across portions of the southern Rockies vicinity and
southern High Plains. During the afternoon, the strong winds aloft,
overlying the low RH, will support elevated to critical fire-weather
conditions as vertical mixing strengthens.

...Portions of southeast AZ, southern NM, the Trans-Pecos region of
southwest TX...
Westerly to northwesterly winds of 20-30 mph -- strongest across
portions of the TX Trans-Pecos region -- are forecast to combine
with minimum RH of 6-15 percent amid dry fuels. As a result, a
Critical area is in effect. This will be supported by diurnally
enhanced vertical mixing amid a core of strong flow aloft trailing
to the west/southwest of the deep mid-level cyclone.

...Portions of the lower CO River Valley...
A separate area of strong winds -- 20-25 mph from the north -- is
expected to combine with minimum RH of 7-12 percent amid dry fuels
in support of an added Critical area. This will be supported by
diurnally enhanced vertical mixing amid a northerly component to the
strong flow aloft to the west of the deep mid-level cyclone.

...Surrounding the two Critical areas, from portions of the lower CO
River Valley eastward across portions of AZ into southern NM and
southwest TX...
Surrounding the Critical areas, elevated to perhaps borderline-
critical fire-weather conditions are anticipated. Despite low RH
across portions of AZ outside of the Critical areas, winds are not
expected to be sufficiently strong for critical designation. Across
portions of southwest TX (to the east of the eastern Critical area),
generally higher RH is expected limit the critical fire-weather risk
despite areas of strong winds.

...Portions of the central FL Peninsula...
Easterly to southeasterly winds of 10-15 mph are forecast to combine
with minimum RH around 35-40 percent amid dry fuels, resulting in
elevated fire-weather conditions. Without stronger winds and lower
RH, critical fire-weather conditions are unlikely.

...Southern CA coastal ranges and adjacent foothills...
Enhanced northeasterly winds are forecast to combine with low RH,
resulting in elevated to critical meteorological conditions.
However, fuels are not expected to be sufficiently dry to warrant
elevated or critical designation.

..Cohen.. 04/29/2017

...Please see http://ift.tt/2i2um2s for graphic product...

Read more

from SPC Forecast Products http://ift.tt/x5VKfK