Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 PM CDT Sun Apr 02 2017 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA...SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO...AND FAR WEST TEXAS... ...Portions of the Southwest and Southern High Plains... Scenario outlined in the previous forecast discussion (below) remains valid with critical fire weather conditions still anticipated from far southeastern AZ across southern NM into southeast NM and adjacent far west TX. No changes needed to the previous outlook. ..Mosier.. 04/02/2017 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0252 AM CDT Sun Apr 02 2017/ ...Synopsis... As one shortwave trough initially over the lower MS Valley shifts northeastward across the Southeast and TN/OH Valleys on Monday, another shortwave trough over the western CONUS is forecast to dig over the Southwest. Enhanced mid-level winds associated with the western CONUS shortwave trough will overspread much of the Southwest and adjacent southern High Plains Monday afternoon as a surface low forms over eastern NM. ...Portions of the Southwest and Southern High Plains... An increase in westerly/southwesterly low-level winds is expected across portions of the lower CO River Valley into southern AZ/NM and far west TX Monday afternoon as the previously mentioned shortwave trough approaches this region and the surface pressure gradient strengthens. Sustained surface winds around 15-25 mph appear probable, with some uncertainty on the eastward extent of these strong winds into the southern High Plains. A critical area has been included for far southeastern AZ, southern NM, and far west TX, where confidence is highest in 20-25 mph sustained winds overlapping with RH values around 12-15% and dry fine fuels. Surrounding the critical designation, elevated fire weather conditions should occur, with the lack of more widespread sub-15% forecast RH values precluding a larger critical area at this time. ...Please see http://ift.tt/2i2um2s for graphic product...Read more
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