SPC MD 390

MD 0390 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE TX/OK PANHANDLES AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS

Mesoscale Discussion 0390
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1107 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2017

Areas affected...Portions of the TX/OK Panhandles and extreme
southwest Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 010407Z - 010530Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated instance of marginally severe hail may occur
through the early overnight hours. Watch issuance is not expected,
though.

DISCUSSION...Elevated convection has blossomed across the southern
High Plains this evening, in response to increasing large-scale
ascent from an approaching mid/upper trough, as well as amplifying
850-700mb warm advection. While a relatively dry tropospheric
profile exists across this region (e.g., PW values around 0.5-0.7
inches), the 00Z AMA sounding sampled a deep elevated mixed layer,
with a 700-500mb lapse rate of 9 C/km. Therefore, while sustained
vigorous convection appears unlikely due to dry-air entrainment in
most nascent updrafts, any persistent/robust updraft will interact
with a deep-layer environment characterized by 45-55 kt of effective
shear. As such, brief updraft organization may yield the potential
for an isolated instance of marginally severe hail. Nonetheless, any
severe threat will remain brief/disorganized, precluding watch
issuance.

..Picca/Edwards.. 04/01/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON   35050046 34700122 34860190 35280206 36980189 37170146
            37180033 36910006 35460022 35050046 

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