Mesoscale Discussion 0403
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1249 PM CDT Sun Apr 02 2017
Areas affected...Portions of eastern LA...central/western
MS...southern LA
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 021749Z - 021945Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...The severe risk will gradually increase east of ongoing
Tornado Watch 109. While not presently likely, these areas will
continue to be monitored for possible watch issuance through
mid-afternoon. The severe risk and watch probabilities will increase
later in the afternoon.
DISCUSSION...Positive theta-e advection in association with a
northward-advancing warm front analyzed from west-central LA to
southern LA continues fostering convective development over
south-central LA. This activity is blossoming over the northern
extent of an uncapped, very moist boundary layer supporting
2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE. Lake Charles radar imagery indicates many
cells already exhibiting supercellular characteristics, and this
activity may continue developing northward across areas east of
Tornado Watch 109. Stronger deep ascent remains displaced to the
west of the area, and overall confidence in a more widespread severe
risk is limited in the short term. Nevertheless, with 35-50 kt of
effective shear supporting organized convective structures and
effective SRH of 300-500 m2/s2 building northward, the conditional
risk for severe hail, wind, and tornadoes may exist through
mid-afternoon. By later in the afternoon, as stronger deep ascent
arrives, unconditional severe-thunderstorm and tornado probabilities
will increase.
..Cohen/Hart.. 04/02/2017
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...
LAT...LON 30749220 31059201 31629183 32619163 32889133 32879068
32208994 31299010 30489078 30449183 30749220
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