SPC MD 405

MD 0405 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST LA AND SOUTHERN MS

Mesoscale Discussion 0405
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0308 PM CDT Sun Apr 02 2017

Areas affected...Portions of southeast LA and southern MS

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 022008Z - 022245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...The area is being monitored for increasing severe
thunderstorm potential from the west. It is uncertain whether this
potential will extend into areas east of ongoing Watch 110 in the
short-term. However, the risk for severe storms will increase later
this evening into tonight, when watch-issuance probabilities may
increase.

DISCUSSION...Isentropic ascent within a moist/weakly capped air mass
continues supporting an area of open-warm sector supercell clusters
across south-central LA. The 18Z Slidell LA sounding sampled around
2000-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE, characterizing the inflow over the
southern extent of the aforementioned convection. With 40-50 kt of
effective shear, and 250-400 m2/s2 of effective SRH, conditional
risk for tornadoes, severe hail, and severe wind will exist. Given
the breadth of the warm sector, and continued moistening from the
south, there is some potential for the aforementioned convection to
spread into the area from the west in the short-term, or perhaps
convection could develop across the MCD area. Regardless, confidence
in sustained severe convection is limited at present. The
severe-thunderstorm/tornado potential will increase into the evening
hours as comparatively stronger deep ascent approaches the area from
the west.

..Cohen/Hart.. 04/02/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...

LAT...LON   29829100 30889145 31369094 31499008 30938986 29749003
            29829100 

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