Mesoscale Discussion 0408
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0423 PM CDT Sun Apr 02 2017
Areas affected...Portions of the middle and lower TX Coast
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 022123Z - 030000Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur across the middle
and lower TX Coast into the evening hours. While environmental and
radar trends will continue to be monitored, present indications are
that the severe risk should be too isolated for watch issuance.
DISCUSSION...Weak low-level ascent along an aggregate outflow / sea
breeze / prefrontal trough, extending about 30 miles inland from the
TX Coast, is supporting towering cumulus and isolated thunderstorm
development. The combination of weak low-level flow and related
convergence per area VAD wind profiles and surface observations, and
ample midlevel drying per water vapor imagery, suggest that updraft
development could be hindered. However, with the approach of a
midlevel vorticity maximum from the west, some increase in
thunderstorm development may occur along the aforementioned
aggregate boundary through the evening hours.
Rich low-level moisture and strong surface heating supporting
2500-3500 J/kg of MLCAPE may conditionally support a few sustained
and deep updrafts. Moreover, with 55-65 kt of effective shear,
organized convection and perhaps an isolated supercell or two could
evolve. Sporadic instances of severe wind and/or hail may accompany
this activity into the evening hours, before nocturnal
destabilization results in a diminishing severe risk.
..Cohen/Edwards.. 04/02/2017
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...BRO...
LAT...LON 26159790 27259793 28559721 29269620 29489544 29129522
28749594 28059702 27239743 26039727 26159790
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