Mesoscale Discussion 0449
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0447 PM CDT Wed Apr 05 2017
Areas affected...Portions of central/southwest OH...central/southern
IN...southeast IL
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 128...
Valid 052147Z - 052315Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 128
continues.
SUMMARY...The risk for severe storms continues across Severe
Thunderstorm Watch 128.
DISCUSSION...Scattered convective cells continue developing from
parts of southeast IL through southern IN and southwest OH. This
activity lies near and south of a warm front, where dewpoints in the
lower 50s are supporting MLCAPE around 250-500 J/kg (largely driven
by cold temperatures aloft given the lack of low-level moisture). As
forcing for ascent near and ahead of the low -- reflected by 2-hour
pressure falls around 3-4 mb -- continues overlapping with
sufficient buoyancy, storms should develop northeastward and
eastward through the evening. Large hail and locally damaging wind
gusts will remain possible with the most intense storms. A tornado
could also occur near the warm front in conjunction with effective
SRH around 200-300 m2/s2 -- especially ahead of the surface low in
the presence of pre-existing vertical vorticity. However, the lack
of more appreciable moisture, and related minimal low-level
buoyancy, will tend to restrict the tornado risk.
..Cohen.. 04/05/2017
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...ILN...IND...PAH...ILX...
LAT...LON 38098832 38578819 39678698 40068571 40268383 39738324
38948298 38638339 38748397 39038495 38878634 38488720
38038791 38098832
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