Mesoscale Discussion 0457
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0212 AM CDT Thu Apr 06 2017
Areas affected...Southeast Georgia into northern and central Florida
Concerning...Tornado Watch 131...
Valid 060712Z - 060915Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 131 continues.
SUMMARY...Severe/isolated tornado risk persist across WW 131.
DISCUSSION...A broken band of vigorous storms along a pre-frontal
confluence axis continues moving east across northern Florida at
this time, having now moved off the southeast Georgia coast. With a
moist/amply unstable airmass in place along with a deep-layer wind
field more than sufficient for updraft rotation, severe risk
continues -- including the potential for a brief tornado.
West of the ongoing storms, flow has veered markedly with time,
reducing convergence along the advancing front. Still, with a
moist/unstable environment in place in the wake of earlier storms,
severe potential remains non-zero across northwestern portions of
the Florida Peninsula, given at least some possibility of initiation
of a few storms along the immediate cold front.
Finally, radar/lightning loops show storms extending southwestward
off the Florida west coast and well into the eastern Gulf. Eastward
advance of these storms could eventually result in an uptick in
severe risk near and south of the Tampa Bay area in the 10-11Z time
frame.
..Goss.. 04/06/2017
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...CHS...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE...
LAT...LON 27688241 27758377 29558403 29988429 31348325 31788285
31688080 30268109 28878035 27688241
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