Mesoscale Discussion 0517
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0309 PM CDT Tue Apr 18 2017
Areas affected...eastern Nevada through western Utah
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 182009Z - 182245Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Developing storms will pose some risk for isolated
downburst winds through early evening from eastern NV into western
UT. Threat is not expected to become sufficient for a severe
thunderstorm watch.
DISCUSSION...Late this afternoon a cold front extends from northeast
through southwest NV. Meanwhile, satellite imagery shows a
rapidly-moving vorticity maximum located within the exit region of a
progressive upper jet approaching NV. Interaction of this feature
with pre-existing baroclinic zone will augment frontogenetic
forcing, and storms should increase in coverage as the atmosphere
destabilizes next few hours. Diabatic warming of the relatively dry
(35-40 F dewpoints) boundary layer will result in inverted-v
profiles as temperatures warm through the low 60s F. However,
instability will remain very weak (MLCAPE below 500 J/kg) due to
limited low-level moisture, and this will serve as an overall
limiting factor. Nevertheless, given the favorable low-level
thermodynamic environment, a few isolated strong to damaging wind
gusts may occur as storms continue to develop along the cold front
into the evening.
..Dial/Thompson.. 04/18/2017
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...SLC...VEF...LKN...
LAT...LON 38621612 39831501 40871387 40891185 40071146 39281269
38241529 38621612
Read morefrom SPC Forecast Products http://ift.tt/HxSkul
No comments:
Post a Comment