SPC MD 529

MD 0529 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHWEST TX...OK

Mesoscale Discussion 0529
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0540 PM CDT Thu Apr 20 2017

Areas affected...Northwest TX...OK

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 202240Z - 210015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to develop across northwest TX
into central OK this evening.  Large hail is the primary risk with
this activity.

DISCUSSION...Surface front has stalled from east central OK into
northwest TX early this evening.  With surface temperatures in the
mid 80s across northwest TX a corridor of modest instability has
developed from the TX South Plains to near the Red River.  Latest
visible satellite imagery depicts a thickening CU field along the
front with deeper convection over Haskell/Knox Counties in TX
producing weak echo returns.  As LLJ strengthens across this region
into southwest OK this evening it appears a marked increase in
thunderstorm activity will be observed.  Numerous elevated
thunderstorms should blossom north of the boundary and adequate
mid-level lapse rates are in place for robust updrafts.  Greatest
risk with this activity should be hail.

..Darrow/Dial.. 04/20/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...

LAT...LON   33940014 35839857 36199687 35519583 34779612 33729798
            33179950 33940014 

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