Mesoscale Discussion 0531 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 PM CDT Thu Apr 20 2017 Areas affected...Eastern TX Panhandle/Northwest TX...OK Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 152... Valid 210430Z - 210530Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 152 continues. SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue to expand in areal coverage across the Southern Plains north of the Red River. Large hail is the primary severe risk with this activity. DISCUSSION...Numerous showers/thunderstorms have developed within warm advection zone across the Southern Plains from northwest TX into extreme southeast KS. While 00z soundings from AMA and OUN do not exhibit significant instability, moisture is advancing north of the boundary into a region of steep mid-level lapse rates. Environmental trends continue to favor additional robust convective development tonight. Two particularly noteworthy supercells have evolved over northwest TX. These storms are propagating southeast toward the primary frontal zone and are likely producing very large hail at times. Current thinking is these storms should remain elevated in nature but given the proximity to the warm sector the inflow layer appears to be ingesting more favorable moisture/instability. Upstream across the TX Panhandle...large-scale forcing for ascent is beginning to spread toward the western-most fringe of higher quality moisture. Isolated thunderstorms have recently developed over northeast NM in advance of a notable short-wave trough. Strong thunderstorms may develop west of WW152 toward 08z then intensify into a possible MCS toward daybreak as it propagates into western OK. ..Darrow.. 04/21/2017 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA... LAT...LON 36090169 35999708 33979709 34070170 36090169Read more
from SPC Forecast Products http://ift.tt/HIWJ0c
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