SPC MD 547

MD 0547 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 157... FOR NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHERN VIRGINIA

Mesoscale Discussion 0547
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0312 PM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017

Areas affected...Northern North Carolina and southern Virginia

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 157...

Valid 222012Z - 222215Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 157
continues.

SUMMARY...Damaging winds and marginally severe hail will be possible
the next few hours with the more intense storms along and south of
the surface front.

DISCUSSION...Convection has continued to increase in coverage along
the surface front near the NC/VA border, and additional discrete
cells are ongoing in the warm sector south of the front where
surface temperatures have warmed into the 80s and dewpoints remain
in the 60s.  The front is sagging southward across southern VA where
it is being augmented by rainfall and cool sea surface temperatures
off the  southeast VA coast.  There is a narrow zone of somewhat
enhanced low-level shear on the immediate cool side of the front as
sampled by the AKQ VWP.  However, the stronger shear is also
coincident with increasing near-surface convective inhibition and
diminished buoyancy.  Thus, any tornado potential will be
short-lived as the front tends to undercut the storms.  Otherwise,
moderate buoyancy and straight hodographs in the warm sector will
continue to promote splitting supercells with an attendant risk for
damaging winds and hail.

..Thompson.. 04/22/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...RNK...

LAT...LON   35847788 35887861 36088011 36158053 36388046 36528021
            36967915 37097853 37107793 37107754 37087709 36967680
            36777660 36577665 36337684 35907737 35847788 

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