SPC MD 561

MD 0561 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHEAST MO...SOUTHERN IL...FAR WESTERN KY...

Mesoscale Discussion 0561
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1226 PM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017

Areas affected...Southeast MO...Southern IL...Far western KY...

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 261726Z - 261900Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...The severe thunderstorm threat will spread eastward into
portions of southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, and western
Kentucky this afternoon. Watch issuance may be required soon to
cover the threat.

DISCUSSION...At 1715Z, an intense thunderstorm was located over
Reynolds County MO, with other strong thunderstorms across northern
AR beginning to approach southeast MO. Filtered sunshine has allowed
some destabilization to occur ahead of this activity, with SBCAPE of
1000-1500 J/kg noted per recent mesoanalysis. While deep-layer flow
is largely meridional, effective shear of 45-55 kts is more than
sufficient for organized storm structures. Steep midlevel lapse
rates will support a threat of large hail with the strongest cells,
while locally damaging wind will be possible with any small bowing
segments that can develop. Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance may be
required soon to cover this threat.

..Dean/Hart.. 04/26/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...SGF...

LAT...LON   36628920 36608943 36609026 36659134 37549069 38289002
            38928910 39028806 38798764 38188806 37598845 37268873
            36928902 36628920 

Read more

from SPC Forecast Products http://ift.tt/IrFrlC