Mesoscale Discussion 0595
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0245 PM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017
Areas affected...North-central/Northeast LA
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 291945Z - 292045Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated damaging wind gusts as well as some hail are
possible as this cluster of thunderstorms moves northeastward into
north-central and northeast LA. A watch is not currently
anticipated.
DISCUSSION...Convective cluster across central LA has evolved with
embedded areas of rotation over the southern flank during the past
hour or so. Recent radar data suggest the cell has recently become
more outflow-dominant. Unimpeded moist low-level flow continues to
stream into the storm's southern flank and the general expectation
is for this storm to persist with a transition to a more linear mode
likely underway. This storm will pose an isolated hail and damaging
wind threat downstream across north-central and northeast LA over
the next few hours. Additionally, given the moist low-level flow and
strong low-level shear, an isolated tornado is also possible.
Current expectation is for only isolated severe and the anticipated
limited spatial extent will likely preclude the need for a watch.
Even so, given the general uncertainty on this storm's future
progression, convective trends across the area will be monitored
closely.
..Mosier/Weiss.. 04/29/2017
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...JAN...SHV...
LAT...LON 32169355 32869274 33029204 32859147 32409130 32089151
31659228 31389366 32169355
Read morefrom SPC Forecast Products http://ift.tt/IciEOA
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