SPC MD 615

MD 0615 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL/EASTERN OH...WESTERN PA...CENTRAL/NORTHERN WV

Mesoscale Discussion 0615
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0158 PM CDT Sun Apr 30 2017

Areas affected...Central/Eastern OH...Western PA...Central/Northern
WV

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 301858Z - 302100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated damaging wind gusts are possible but the limited
severe threat is expected to preclude the need for a watch.

DISCUSSION...Transient updrafts have been noted for several hours
within the warm-air advection regime across the region. Robust
development has been largely absent thus far but recent radar and
satellite imagery better vertical development across OH where the
leading edge of the large-scale height falls are likely impinging on
the region. Despite warm and moist surface conditions (i.e.
temperatures in the 80s and dewpoints in the low 60s), warm
temperatures aloft and poor mid-level lapse rates will limit
instability. Shear is strong enough for a few more organized
updrafts capable of isolated damaging wind gusts. A wet downburst or
two may also occur as a result of storm interactions and the
resultant water-loading. However, the general expectation is for the
majority of storms to remain sub-severe and the overall severe
threat to remain low.

..Mosier/Grams.. 04/30/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...

LAT...LON   40698214 41468128 41878007 41347876 38687942 38468333
            40698214 

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