Mesoscale Discussion 0616
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0225 PM CDT Sun Apr 30 2017
Areas affected...Eastern WV Panhandle...Northern VA...MD...DC...Far
south-central PA
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 301925Z - 302100Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated strong wind gusts and marginal hail are possible
throughout the remainder of the afternoon.
DISCUSSION...An isolated thunderstorm developed along the stationary
boundary draped from just south of EKN in eastern WV to north of CGE
and SBY on the Delmarva Peninsula. This storm is now weakening but,
given the persistent convergence along the boundary within the warm
and moist airmass over the region, a similar scenario may occur
again. Additional thunderstorms may initiate over the higher terrain
and then move into the area.
Instability will be limited by warm mid-level temperatures by recent
mesoanalysis still estimates MLCAPE around 1500 J/kg. Recent LWX VAD
show a kinematic environment that is favorable for some updraft
organization. Primary negative factor is the neutral or weak height
rises across the region and the general dearth of any large-scale
forcing for ascent. As a result, updraft maintenance/persistence
seems unlikely. Even so, a couple of wet downbursts are possible due
to water loading and some marginal hail is possible, particularly
with initial development.
..Mosier/Grams.. 04/30/2017
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...
LAT...LON 39267940 40167859 40067745 39787646 39377601 38537580
38317600 38197665 38187752 38127932 38507952 39267940
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