SPC May 1, 2017 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1247 AM CDT Mon May 01 2017

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL/UPPER TEXAS COAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms will be possible from the western Gulf Coast to the
northern Plains through Tuesday night. A few strong/marginally
severe storms may develop late Tuesday night near the central/upper
Texas Coast.

...Synopsis...
Broad cyclonic flow aloft will remain established east of the
Rockies, as one closed low lifts northeast across southern
Ontario/Quebec, and a shortwave trough advances southeast from the
northern Rockies to the northern/central Plains. Meanwhile, multiple
weak impulses in the sub-tropical jet will progress east/northeast
from Mexico towards the western/central Gulf Coast.

...Portions of the Texas Coast...
The region will likely remain dry through Tuesday and much of
Tuesday night. However, late in the period, guidance is in fair
agreement that a subtle shortwave trough will approach from the
southwest. In response, a southerly low-level jet should amplify
somewhat, increasing warm advection and broad ascent over parts of
the central/upper coast. Model consensus has delayed/trended
westward with the return of more substantial moisture near 850mb,
and this appears reasonable considering the anomalously amplified
nature of the previous system and relatively short time for return
flow. Nonetheless, sufficient moisture (for convective initiation)
may reach the central/upper coast very late in the period. Indeed,
the 01/00Z GFS/NAM, as well as the 30/12Z ECMWF/ECENS, indicate some
convective potential late in the period. With the presence of
relatively steep mid-level lapse rates and a veering wind profile
with height, any sustained deep convection may be capable of
isolated severe hail and perhaps a tornado and/or damaging wind gust
if sufficient low-level moisture reaches the coast.

...Portions of the Texas Panhandle into Oklahoma and southern
Kansas...
Strengthening warm advection ahead of the approaching Rockies trough
will support the development of elevated convection Tuesday night.
Modest MUCAPE upwards of 500-750 J/kg and westerly mid-level flow of
40-50 kt may foster enough updraft organization for a few instances
of small or even near-severe hail. However, the potential for any
organized severe weather appears too low for 5-percent probabilities
at this time.

..Picca.. 05/01/2017

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