Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1116 AM CDT Mon May 01 2017 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NY TO WESTERN NC... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NY TO SAVANNAH VALLEY... ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTHEAST STATES TO GA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered to numerous strong to severe storms are expected into this evening with damaging winds and a few tornadoes, most likely from western/central New York southward into the Carolinas. ...NY to the Carolinas... Broken clusters of showers with embedded isolated storms are ongoing along a cold front from the Upper OH Valley to GA. Given the meridional flow pattern, mid-level lapse rates were weak in regional 12Z observed soundings. In conjunction with pronounced downstream cloud coverage, buoyancy will remain limited with MLCAPE largely below 750 J/kg north of SC. A mid-level vorticity maxima ejecting northeast across the Upper OH Valley should decay through this afternoon, but provide sufficient large-scale ascent to aid in increasing storm coverage across parts of WV into western PA/NY. Nearly unidirectional and quite strong wind profiles should support evolution to northeastward-accelerating linear bands with embedded bows across the northern Appalachians vicinity. Damaging wind swaths should be the primary hazard, but 50-60 kt 850-mb winds should foster the risk for a few tornadoes from QLCS-related mesovortices and embedded supercells. While large-scale ascent will be weaker with southern extent towards upstate/Piedmont regions of the Carolinas, the overall thermodynamic/kinematic environment should be similar and yield a mixed mode of a few semi-discrete supercells and linear clusters. Scattered damaging winds and a couple tornadoes will be possible. The eastern extent of the risk towards the coastal plains of the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic should wane tonight owing to a lack of greater warm-sector instability. ..Grams/Mosier.. 05/01/2017Read more
from SPC Forecast Products http://ift.tt/wWCv9s
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