SPC May 1, 2017 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0346 AM CDT Mon May 01 2017

Valid 041200Z - 091200Z

...DISCUSSION...
A mid-level trough will amplify across the eastern US through the
end of the week. As it does so, surface low pressure will deepen
over Tennessee/Kentucky as it evolves northeast, with a trailing
cold front quickly advancing across the southeast US. While wind
fields will strengthen over parts of the central Gulf Coast ahead of
the front, considerable uncertainty exists regarding the quality of
low-level moisture return. The 00Z GFS depicts sufficient
moisture/destabilization favorable for severe weather Thursday from
parts of the central Gulf Coast east to the Carolinas; however, the
00Z ECMWF/ECENS depict less moisture and only marginal buoyancy
(e.g., MUCAPE around 250-500 J/kg) advancing significantly inland.
Therefore, while forcing for ascent along the front will likely
support a band of at least strong thunderstorms pushing east, the
potential for organized severe weather remains too uncertain for
15-percent probabilities at this time. The cold front is forecast to
push offshore the NC coast Friday morning, with a narrow corridor of
severe potential possible across eastern NC. However, due to the
small potential area and inherent uncertainty with timing at this
range, 15-percent probabilities are not introduced at present.

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