Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0737 PM CDT Mon May 01 2017 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE CHAMPLAIN AND HUDSON VALLEYS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COASTAL PLAIN... ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SURROUNDING AREAS OF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD... ...SUMMARY... The risk for mainly potentially damaging wind gusts continues this evening with thunderstorm activity expected to spread into the Champlain and Hudson Valleys, and the mid and south Atlantic coastal plain. ...Discussion... An organized squall line to the lee of the lower Great Lakes region appears to be in the process of beginning to weaken, with the onset of warm sector boundary layer cooling ahead of it. However, a risk for strong, potentially damaging wind gusts seems likely to continue (in the presence of 50+ kt southwesterly deep layer mean flow) at least into/across the Champlain and upper Hudson Valleys, before it encounters a substantively cooler/more stable environment and wanes during the 02-04Z time frame. Farther south, considerable thunderstorm activity has developed within the surface trough to the lee of the central/southern Appalachians. Mid/upper forcing for ascent ahead of large-scale mid/upper troughing to the west of the Appalachians is not as strong as to the lee of the lower Great Lakes, and warm mid-level layers have suppressed destabilization and convective development at least somewhat. However, the latest Rapid Refresh indicates at least some mid-level cooling, coupled with strengthening of southerly 850 mb flow to 50+ kt, this evening across the coastal plain of the Carolinas and Virginia, which may be sufficient to maintain vigorous convective development with a risk for localized potentially damaging wind gusts and perhaps an isolated tornado. ..Kerr.. 05/02/2017Read more
from SPC Forecast Products http://ift.tt/rxAC6Z
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