Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0756 PM CDT Mon May 29 2017 Valid 300100Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS... ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe thunderstorms may linger across the eastern Carolinas this evening into early tonight, with gusty winds and isolated severe hail the main threats. An isolated severe storm or two will also remain possible across parts of the Texas Big Bend and Edwards Plateau. ...Carolinas... Scattered thunderstorms continue to advance eastward across the region this evening, occasionally reaching severe limits. Downstream of these storms, the air mass remains moderately unstable, with the 00Z CHS sounding sampling around 1600 J/kg of MLCAPE. However, with slow nocturnal cooling underway, surface-based inhibition will continue to rise, with a resultant downward trend in overall convective intensity. Nonetheless, deep-layer wind profiles and residual instability may support occasional small bowing segments capable of localized gusty/damaging winds. Isolated instances of severe hail also remain possible. ...Southwest Texas... Isolated/widely scattered convection persists this evening under the influence of sub-tropical upper-level westerlies around 50-60kt. The 00Z DRT sounding sampled steep mid-level lapse rates, but rather weak flow through low and mid levels. Therefore, pulsing, relatively disorganized updrafts may persist through parts of the overnight, largely driven/focused by propagation along outflow. The deepest cores will be capable of localized strong/damaging winds and isolated severe hail. ..Picca.. 05/30/2017Read more
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