Mesoscale Discussion 0619
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0209 AM CDT Mon May 01 2017
Areas affected...southern AL and western FL panhandle
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 010709Z - 010915Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...A severe-storm risk including a brief tornado and/or
localized damaging wind gust may shift eastward across southern AL
and the western FL panhandle through the early morning hours.
DISCUSSION...Some stronger storms have evolved across southwest AL
early in the overnight, with other storms exhibiting weak/transient
rotation farther south near Mobile Bay vicinity. These storms are
occurring near a slow-eastward-moving cold front, with a weak
frontal wave (1010 mb surface low) noted across south-central AL.
Strong pressure falls of 3-5 mb/2-hours are noted across
south-central AL.
The primary limiting factor, or at least point of uncertainty,
relates to extensive convection and outflow earlier in the day
during the late afternoon and early evening. However, in the wake of
the prior outflow, a steady thermodynamic recovery appears to be
occurring northward into south-central AL where temperatures and
dewpoints have risen 3-5 deg F and 2-4 deg F, respectively, over the
past two hours. Regional wind profiles (based on WSR-88D VWP data)
are sampling strong and veering wind profiles with 0-1 km SRH
estimated to be as high as 250-300 m2/s2. While the influence of
prior convection should generally be a detrimental factor, it is
possible that some additional storm intensification occurs including
bowing structures and a few embedded mesovortices/weak supercells
with at least some low-end risk for a tornado and/or damaging wind
gust.
..Guyer.. 05/01/2017
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...
LAT...LON 30128837 30968802 32478681 32088519 31008562 30288745
30128837
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