Mesoscale Discussion 0630
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0841 PM CDT Mon May 01 2017
Areas affected...extreme northeast PA...much of eastern NY into far
western VT
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 187...
Valid 020141Z - 020245Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 187
continues.
SUMMARY...A few strong/locally severe gusts are possible in the
short term across eastern NY. However, a gradual weakening trend is
expected over the next 1-2 hours and a downstream watch is not
expected.
DISCUSSION...The severe threat is expected to diminish over the next
1-2 hours as instability wanes and low level stabilization
accompanies loss of daytime heating. A stronger bowing segments
remains from near GFL to MSV in eastern NY where modest midlevel
lapse rates are likely aiding in sustained convection, and some
strong/locally severe gusts are possible with this segment in the
short-term. However, radar trends indicate gradual weakening has
commenced and this trend will continue with eastward extent. While
convection may persist downstream of WW 187, a new watch is not
anticipated as any activity should remain below severe limits.
..Leitman.. 05/02/2017
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...BTV...OKX...ALY...BGM...
LAT...LON 44027339 43847299 43457286 41597351 41607527 41937525
42477452 43387402 43887374 44027339
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