Mesoscale Discussion 0690
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0626 PM CDT Wed May 10 2017
Areas affected...Portions of northern/central IL and western IN
Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely
Valid 102326Z - 110100Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...A damaging wind and large hail threat will likely continue
to the east of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 203 through the evening.
Downstream watch issuance is likely.
DISCUSSION...A line of thunderstorms moving into central IL as of
2325Z has recently acquired a bowing structure, and several wind
damage reports have been received over the past hour. The
environment downstream of this ongoing convection and to the south
of a stationary front across northern IL/IN should remain at least
weakly unstable for much of the evening, with MLCAPE around 500-750
J/kg per Rap Mesoanalysis. A veering and strengthening wind profile
per ILX/IND VWPs are contributing to generally 40-45 kt of effective
bulk shear, which will be more than sufficient to maintain
organization of this line as it moves eastward across
northern/central IL. Damaging winds should remain the primary threat
given linear storm mode, although some large hail may also occur
with supercell structures on the southern flank of the line per
recent radar trends. Downstream watch issuance into eastern IL and
western IN appears likely.
..Gleason/Hart.. 05/10/2017
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...
LAT...LON 39538933 40718884 41258873 40908617 39678621 38968682
39238870 39538933
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