Mesoscale Discussion 0805 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 PM CDT Sun May 21 2017 Areas affected...Middle/Upper Rio Grande Valley Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 211744Z - 211915Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Strong thunderstorms are expected across the middle-upper Rio Grande Valley region. Large hail is the primary risk, though gusty winds may also accompany this activity. DISCUSSION...Latest satellite/model data suggest a mid-level short-wave trough has migrated across northern Mexico and is approaching the middle-upper Rio Grande Valley region. Over the last several hours, numerous thunderstorms have developed over the higher terrain of northern Mexico and these storms are gradually evolving into a larger complex. With time an MCS should develop and turn southeast along the Rio Grande River Valley such that strong storms could bleed across the international border. This is supported by an expected increase in southeasterly LLJ across the Rio Grande Valley. Radar algorithms suggest large hail accompanies the strongest activity, primarily west of the border. However, severe threat should increase along the immediate US side as this maturing complex of storms turns southeast. WW may be warranted for this activity. ..Darrow/Weiss.. 05/21/2017 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...SJT...MAF... LAT...LON 27340058 28690222 30310171 29920024 27729894 27340058Read more
from SPC Forecast Products http://ift.tt/JUEOSv
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