SPC Jun 12, 2017 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0350 AM CDT Mon Jun 12 2017

Valid 151200Z - 201200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Considerable further weakening of the lower/mid tropospheric cyclone
emerging from the Intermountain West appears likely to the southwest
of Hudson Bay by late this week, with a lingering belt of westerlies
trending more zonal across the northern tier states.  Thereafter,
medium range guidance indicates that amplification within the
westerlies is possible next weekend into early next week.  However,
even within output of the mean height fields generated by the NCEP
MREF and ECENS, the developing waves become completely out of phase
by the end of the period.  While areas with at least some severe
weather concern will undoubtedly develop throughout the period,
driven considerably by seasonable instability, severe probabilities
remain below 15 percent, primarily due to low pattern
predictability.

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