SPC Jun 27, 2017 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0748 PM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017

Valid 270100Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
KANSAS...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OUTSIDE OF THE
SLIGHT RISK ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with severe hail and damaging wind gusts are possible
this evening across parts of the central Plains. Marginally severe
thunderstorms will also be possible in the southern High Plains and
Pacific Northwest.

...Central Plains/Southern High Plains...
The latest water vapor imagery shows an upper-level trough extending
from the western Great Lakes into the central Plains with a plume of
mid-level moisture located across the northern High Plains
southeastward into the central Plains. At the surface, a slow moving
front is located from eastern Colorado extending eastward into
west-central and southeastern Kansas. A couple severe thunderstorms
are located along the front, one to the southeast of Goodland and
another to the southeast of Salina. South of the front, moderate
instability is analyzed by the RAP across much of southwestern and
south-central Kansas where MLCAPE is estimated from the 1000 to 1800
J/kg. This is confirmed by the 00Z sounding from Dodge City which
has MLCAPE of 1200 J/kg along with a very steep low-level lapse rate
of 8.3 C/km. The wind profile at Dodge City has substantial
directional shear in the lowest 2 km AGL with north-northwest flow
at 35 kt in the mid levels. In addition to moderate deep-layer
shear, mid-level lapse rates are also steep which will support
supercells with large hail. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in
diameter will be possible with the strongest updrafts. Wind damage
could also occur especially as cells gust out later this
evening...reference MCD 1158. A marginal severe threat should exist
across parts of east-central New Mexico and southeastern Colorado
where hail and strong gusty winds will be possible....reference MCDs
1156 and 1157.

...Pacific Northwest...
The latest water vapor imagery shows an upper-level ridge over the
northern Rockies with southwest flow in the Pacific Northwest. A
minor shortwave trough appears to be moving northeastward across the
Pacific Northwest where scattered thunderstorms have developed this
evening. The RAP is analyzing a corridor of instability from
southwestern Oregon into northern Idaho where wind shear appears
sufficient for a marginal severe threat. This combined with steep
lapse rates in the low to mid-levels may be enough for hail and
gusty winds to occur with the stronger thunderstorms...reference MCD
1159.

..Broyles.. 06/27/2017

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