SPC Jun 9, 2017 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0757 PM CDT Thu Jun 08 2017

Valid 090100Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST AND NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST
TEXAS INTO A SMALL PART OF EAST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
MONTANA...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms remain possible through this evening across
Montana, and the southern High Plains from northwest Texas into part
of eastern New Mexico.  Large hail and damaging winds are the
primary severe-weather threats with this activity.

...Montana...
Height falls will continue across Montana through tonight, as a
shortwave trough advances to the northeast through western and
central Montana.  Forcing for ascent with this trough and attendant
to a 50-70 kt southwesterly 500-mb jet will sustain additional
storms moving through parts of central and northern Montana this
evening.  Further increase in bulk shear and residual moderate
instability will continue to result in organized strong to severe
storms, with damaging winds and large hail the primary threats prior
to activity moving across the international border.

...Southern High Plains...
There remains the potential for one or more clusters of storms to
evolve from the ongoing storms across the Texas Panhandle and
eastern New Mexico this evening, given forecast for modest
strengthening of southerly low-level winds across west Texas. 
Residual buoyancy, steep lapse rates and effective bulk shear of
35-50 kt suggests large hail, some very large, and damaging winds
remain the primary threats early this evening.  If a forward
propagating cluster can develop, then strong/damaging winds could
become the greater threat as storms would move into portions of
west-central Texas, and perhaps western North Texas during the early
overnight.

..Peters.. 06/09/2017

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