SPC MD 1098

MD 1098 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA INTO NORTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA

Mesoscale Discussion 1098
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0543 PM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017

Areas affected...Central North Carolina into northern South Carolina

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 192243Z - 200045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Areas of thunderstorms are expected to persist and/or
reform across the Carolinas through evening, and a few could contain
a marginal wind, hail, or even brief/weak tornado threat.

DISCUSSION...Numerous storms currently exist across southern VA,
with area of storms into central NC into northern SC being enhanced
by a northwestward-surging outflow boundary. Satellite imagery shows
pockets of heating, and surface obs maintain a very moist air mass
with dewpoints into the mid 70s. Even behind the aforementioned
boundary, the air mass remains unstable. However, lapse rates aloft
are relatively weak.

Winds aloft are marginally favorable for severe storms, especially
over NC near the base of the upper trough. Area VWPs indicate
veering winds with height in the low levels, suggesting marginal
supercell potential. The primary cold front remains well to the
west, and will not move much. But, given the unstable air mass and
multiple outflow boundaries around, storms could redevelop anywhere.
The most likely severe threat is localized damaging wind gusts, but
a brief/weak tornado can not totally be ruled out with such a
chaotic, yet slightly supportive boundary layer.

..Jewell/Guyer.. 06/19/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE...GSP...

LAT...LON   34038003 33988102 34218154 34268238 34578276 34918255
            35988085 36457977 36547869 36527813 36257790 35607809
            34967843 34038003 

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