Mesoscale Discussion 1156
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0640 PM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017
Areas affected...South-central/southeast CO...Northeast NM...Far
western OK Panhandle
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 262340Z - 270145Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Widely scattered thunderstorms capable of large hail and
strong wind gusts are possible throughout the evening.
DISCUSSION...Recent regional radar imagery show widely scattered
thunderstorms ongoing over south-central/southeast CO and adjacent
far northeast NM. Storms closer to the higher terrain across
south-central CO developed within the persist upslope flow and
favorable orographic circulations. Most isolated storms farther east
appear to have developed along a pair of residual outflow
boundaries, one stretched across Baca county CO and the other
farther north in Lincoln and Cheyenne counties. Large-scale
kinematic environment is similar across the entire region with
generally easterly surface winds veering with height to become
northwesterly aloft. Recent PUX VAD sampled over 35 kt of 0-6 km
bulk shear. Shear increases slightly with eastward extent as a
result of stronger mid-level flow. Thermodynamic environment also
improves with eastward extent. Recent MLCAPE estimates from
mesoanalysis suggest around 500 J/kg across south-central CO
increasing to around 1500 J/kg over far southeast CO. Overall, this
environment is supportive of strong, organized updrafts capable of
large hail with any persist convection. High storm bases could also
result in strong wind gusts. Scattered nature of the convection is
expected to preclude the need for a watch but trends across the
region will be monitored closely.
..Mosier/Hart.. 06/26/2017
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...DDC...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...
LAT...LON 36340501 37310560 38050551 38480488 38540372 38210264
37100191 36280341 36340501
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