SPC MD 1157

MD 1157 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL NM

Mesoscale Discussion 1157
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0700 PM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017

Areas affected...Central NM

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 270000Z - 270200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are possible across central NM for
the next few hours. Some hail and damaging wind gusts are possible
but general lack of storm organization is expected to preclude the
need for a watch.

DISCUSSION...Convective coverage has increased over the higher
terrain over the past hour or so and an outflow boundary is now
tracking southwestward through interior portions of central NM. Some
development is possible along this outflow boundary but storms are
expected to be relatively short-lived and disorganized, owing
primarily to the lack of stronger shear across the area. Even so,
some hail (likely sub-severe) and damaging wind gusts are possible.
Farther east, storms currently ongoing over the higher terrain will
continue to pose a threat for large hail and damaging wind gusts.
Deep mixing within the downstream airmass over Lincoln, Torrance and
Guadalupe counties has resulted in an increase in convective
inhibition, suggesting that the activity will be short-lived once it
moves east off the higher terrain. Overall lack of organization
within the storms across the region is expected to keep the severe
threat brief and/or isolated, precluding the need for a watch.

..Mosier/Hart.. 06/27/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...

LAT...LON   34200679 35490709 36050692 36220573 35950504 35240466
            33010484 32770623 34200679 

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