Mesoscale Discussion 1196
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1148 AM CDT Fri Jun 30 2017
Areas affected...portions of northeast PA...central/eastern
NY...VT...western MA
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 301648Z - 301915Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage and
intensity during the afternoon with a risk for damaging winds and
isolated large hail. Trends will be monitored for the possibility
of a severe thunderstorm watch over portions of the area prior to
19Z.
DISCUSSION...Diurnal destabilization is underway across much of the
discussion area as sufficient breaks have been noted in cloud
cover/ongoing precipitation over central/eastern NY, with more
robust heating across northeast PA. Despite weak mid-level lapse
rates, dew points in the mid/upper 60s will lead to pockets of
MLCAPE in the 1000-1500 j/kg range this afternoon. Modest
large-scale ascent and strenghtening mid-level flow associated with
a convectively enhanced mid-level impulse will develop across the
discussion area over the next several hours, and an increase in
thunderstorms is expected during the early-mid afternoon. Largely
unidirectional flow and deep-layer shear ranging from 35-45 kts will
be favorable for multicell clusters/short line segments and a few
supercell storm structures. Damaging winds will be the primary
severe weather threat, though isolated instances of large hail will
also be possible.
A severe thunderstorm watch may be needed over portions of the
discussion area prior to 19Z.
..Bunting/Hart.. 06/30/2017
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...
CTP...
LAT...LON 41077540 41087642 41407709 41797711 42657666 43027637
43297610 43607515 43897445 44217397 44477300 44207241
43677201 42617245 41777342 41077540
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