Mesoscale Discussion 1197
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 PM CDT Fri Jun 30 2017
Areas affected...much of Indiana...southeast lower
Michigan...western Ohio...portions of extreme northern Kentucky
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 301756Z - 302000Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...A risk for damaging winds and isolated large hail will
exist across the area this afternoon. Short-term trends will be
monitored for the possibility of a severe thunderstorm watch in the
19Z-20Z time frame.
DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have increased in coverage across
portions of east-central Illinois and central/northern Indiana as
diurnal heating of a very moist air mass continues near/in advance
of a weak confluence zone/residual outflow boundary from northwest
Indiana south into southern Illinois. Moderate surface-based
instability is in place across the area, and large-scale ascent
associated with a convectively-induced mid-level impulse will
develop over the area during the remainder of this afternoon. A
modest increase in mid-upper-level flow will contribute to
deep-layer shear of 30-40 kts by late afternoon, supporting
multicell clusters and perhaps a few supercells with mid-level
rotation. Damaging winds will be the primary threat, and isolated
instances of large hail will also be possible.
Convective trends will be monitored and a severe thunderstorm watch
may be needed in the 19Z-20Z time frame.
..Bunting/Hart.. 06/30/2017
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...LMK...IWX...GRR...IND...PAH...
LOT...ILX...
LAT...LON 38448564 37608693 37828805 38678806 39258813 39788769
40348734 40608708 41088654 41488608 41798555 42768387
42858320 42578298 41938323 41428285 41108279 40558294
39768374 39108459 38448564
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