SPC MD 934

MD 0934 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF MAIN...EASTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE...AND EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS

Mesoscale Discussion 0934
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1106 AM CDT Thu Jun 01 2017

Areas affected...Much of Main...eastern New Hampshire...and eastern
Massachusetts

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 011606Z - 011830Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A band of convection has developed along an axis near the
western extent of the discussion area.  This band should gradually
increase in intensity, with hail and damaging wind gusts becoming
more of a threat as the afternoon progresses.  A WW may be needed
(especially in eastern Maine) later this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Convection has increased along a NNE to SSW band from
near far northern Maine (about 90 W of Caribou) to near Worcester,
Massachusetts.  This convection was responsible for a few brief
downpours, small hail, and some lightning.  The combination of
cooling temperatures aloft associated with an approaching shortwave
near Lake Ontario and insolation/surface warming will lead to
1000-1500 J/kg MU CAPE developing across the discussion area later
this afternoon.  This instability, combined with modest deep shear
profiles and lift associated with the approaching wave will likely
result in the ongoing band of convection increasing with intensity
over time.  Hail and damaging wind gusts are the most likely threats
with this activity, and this threat will likely be highest over
eastern Maine.  Given the aforementioned factors, a slight risk
(driven by wind and hail probabilities) has been introduced at the
1630Z outlook update and a severe thunderstorm watch may eventually
be needed (particularly for eastern Maine) later in the afternoon.

..Cook/Hart.. 06/01/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...

LAT...LON   47206905 47216874 47336825 47206793 46886776 46126777
            45756778 45506738 45216721 44806705 44616726 44486789
            44266865 43986924 43647004 42987066 42497078 42167094
            42087144 42197177 42997161 45217030 47206905 

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